The Time is Nigh

The Potash War seems to be reaching a final stage.  Still absent though from the battlefield is the promised White Knight...or even a White Squire for that matter.   Yet the time is nigh with nationalistic emotions running high.   Prairie politicians and the local press are for the most part objecting to the sale of this "national asset"; seemingly overlooking the fact that the Provence of Saskatchewan sold PotashCorp to the public in 1989.

At the other extreme, we have a post on the Deal Blog in The New York Times titled:  In Potash War, Is Saskatchewan the New Venezuela?

Nationalism and Ponzi politics aside, the fundamental problem seems to be about... surprise, surprise...money.   The potash industry is a major revenue source for the Saskatchewan Government.  Somewhat at odds with this are the interests of PotashCorp's shareholders (widows, children and all).     If the Canadian Government materially blocks the Aussie Fossickers for nationalistic reasons, they will in effect impair the value of PotashCorp's shares for some time to come, basically putting a glass ceiling over them.   The stock market seems to be already baking this discount into PotashCorp's shares as they have been underperforming the market and their peers of late. 

While we feel comfortable commenting on the economic aspects of this debate, we are going to leave it to a blog post and video on Canada's Business News Network, to further address the Canadian nuances: Examining PotashCorp patriotism.